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Case study · Oil & Gas

ES-SAGD steam/solvent blend forecast

An ES-SAGD operator needed to forecast the optimal steam/solvent blend across a range of operating scenarios — a problem that couldn’t be solved with a single thermodynamic model alone..

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Outcome

Best blend

identified

Problem

An ES-SAGD operator needed to forecast the optimal steam/solvent blend across a range of operating scenarios — a problem that couldn’t be solved with a single thermodynamic model alone.

Approach

R2 built a coupled HYSYS + AnyLogic model with a custom scenario planner. The pipeline iterated across operating conditions and ranked steam/solvent blends on production response and economic return.

Result

The recommended blend was identified and validated against expected production behavior — operating teams could carry the recommendation forward with model-backed confidence.

From the engagement

What the work produced.

Engagement output — blend forecast

Chart comparing historical oil against simulated oil over roughly 1,800 days, then forecasting forward under a conventional SAGD case and four ES-SAGD cases at 10, 20, 30 and 40 percent solvent.
History first, forecast second. The model was matched against 1,800 days of production before it was allowed to project forward, then run across solvent fractions from 10% to 40% against the conventional SAGD base case.

Technologies & methods

The stack behind the outcome.

  • HYSYS
  • AnyLogic
  • Custom scenario planner

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